Posted on February 7th, 2010 by Dr. Wil Burns
An excellent piece supporting a research program on solar radiation management geoengineering was published this week by the journal nature, David W. Keith, Edward Parson & M. Granger Morgan, Research on Global Sun Block Needed Now, 463 Nature 426-27 (2010) (accessible without subscription).
Among the takeaways from the article:
- Solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering (defined as adding light-scattering aerosols to the upper atmosphere or increasing the lifetime and reflectivity of low-altitude clouds to exert a cooling effect) could offset projected temperature increases this century at a cost 100x less than through emissions cuts, or merely a few billions annually;
- Research on SRM has been extremely limited to date, largely restricted to a handful of climate-model studies using very simple parameterizations of aerosol microphysics; the potential hazards of SRM (which the article indicates includes potentially less precipitation and less evaporation, potentially creating regional “winners” and “losers” can only be assessed through in-situ testing, which will cost millions of dollars;
- It would be “reckless” to conduct the first large-scale SRM tests under an emergency scenario; we shoudl expand experiments gradually to scales big enough to produce barely detectable climate effects, and to reveal unexpected problems, but small enough to limit risks;
- Research should be conducted using a “blue team/red team” approach, in which one team proposes an approach and the other works to identify risks and why proposals might not prove effective;
- A better alternative to hasty pursuit of international regulation would be seeking to engender international cooperation and norms from the bottom up, as occurred with the landmine convention; this should include an international program of research and risk assessment by multiple independent teams;
- While some fear that geoengineering research and potential deployment could lead to a “moral hazard,” i.e. weaken a commitment to mitigation, there’s a great threat to mitigation effort by allowing for the possibility of SRM without scrutiny of actual requirements, limitations and risks; moreover, if SRM proves unworkable or poses unacceptable risks, the sooner we discover this, the less of a moral hazard geoengineering will pose.
This piece would provide an excellent foundation for discussing geoengineering options. Among the potential questions for students that could flow from it include the following:
- Is it realistic to believe that an SRM program could be shut down once substantial research programs ensued, i.e. isn’t their a danger of a “political lock in” that would make deployment inevitable at some point, exacerbating the potential threat of moral hazard?;
- What is the potential moral hazard threat the geoengineering might pose for adaptation efforts?;
- Even if a bottom-up research approach is optimal, would we ultimately need international governance should we proceed with full-scale deployment, and if yes, what would be the appropriate regime(s) to do so?;
- Should any proposals for full-scale deployment of geoengineering include a liability mechanism for potential damages to the interests of some States?
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Posted on February 7th, 2010 by Dr. Wil Burns
Hi colleagues,
The LSE’s climate centre has just published details of its annual PhD scholarship competition in the field of climate economic and politics. Please distribute widely to students and colleagues. Deadline for applications is 26 March 2010. Thanks, Robert
Postgraduate Studentships
The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at LSE, incorporating the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, is offering two… Continue reading
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Posted on February 6th, 2010 by Dr. Wil Burns
A new document regarding the Yasuni-ITT Initiative (the innovative initiative of Ecuador to keep petroleum underground, protect biodiversity and indigenous peoples, and develop sustainably) is now available online: The Yasuni-ITT Initiative: an international equity mechanism? Master thesis.
The thesis aimed at analysing and assessing whether the Yasuni-ITT Initiative can be considered as an alternative pilot project to address not only environmental and climate justice, but also power imbalances. Current… Continue reading
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Posted on February 6th, 2010 by Dr. Wil Burns
In the past few days, I’ve summarized the take of the World Resources Institute and WWF on the Copenhagen Accord. A new analysis by Climate Interactive, comprised of researchers from Sustainability Institute, the MIT Sloan School of Management, and Ventana Systems, provides an even more pessimistic assessment. Using the C-Roads computer simulation, the researchers concluded that the current pledges of UNFCCC parties would yield a temperature increase of 3.9C… Continue reading
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Posted on February 5th, 2010 by Dr. Wil Burns
The Climate Leadership Initiative invites you to attend a one-hour introductory webinar to our suite of award-winning, climate change community engagement programs, Climate Masters. Please share this invitation with others who might be interested in learning more about our programs.
What: The webinar will cover the format, content and outcomes of our model climate change education programs for businesses, community members and youth. Talk with those experienced in replicating… Continue reading
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Posted on February 5th, 2010 by Dr. Wil Burns
Title: World Ethics and Climate Change: From International to Global Justice
Author: Paul G. Harris
Copyright: 2010
Dimensions: 234 x 156 mm
Length: 224 pages
Series: Edinburgh Studies in World Ethics
http://www.eupjournals.com/book/978-0-7486-3910-6 <http://www.eupjournals.com/book/978-0-7486-3910-6>
Early Review: “Paul Harris argues that affluent people everywhere are, by their contributions to climate change, violating the rights of the poor. He makes a powerful case for focusing on individual rights and responsibilities… Continue reading
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Posted on February 4th, 2010 by Dr. Wil Burns
As a follow-up on my post yesterday summarizing WWF’s new study on the implications of Annex I emissions reductions under the Copenhagen accord, here’s a summary of the World Resource Institute’s new analysis, Levin & Bradley, Comparability of Annex I Emission Reduction Pledges (2010).
The key points in the study:
- The Annex I Parties’ emission reduction pledges would reduce emissions by 12-18% below 1990 levels by
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Posted on February 3rd, 2010 by Dr. Wil Burns
In the past few days, both the World Resources Institute and WWF have published analyses of the impacts of the Copenhagen Accord in addressing climate change. I plan to summarize both of these reports in the next few days, because they would both be excellent readings for a climate change law/policy course. Today, I look at the WWF’s report, The Copenhagen Accord: A Stepping Stone? (Jan. 2010).
Among… Continue reading
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Posted on February 3rd, 2010 by Dr. Wil Burns
Dear colleagues and friends,
We are happy to inform you that the IPCC newsletter ”IPCC News” – Issue 1 is now available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/Newsletter/IPCC_newsletter_2010_issue_1.pdf .
Please feel free to circulate the newsletter among colleagues who might be interested in it.
Best regards,
IPCC Secretariat… Continue reading
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Posted on February 2nd, 2010 by Dr. Wil Burns
On January 31, Annex 1 (industrialized) countries wishing to associate themselves with the Copenhagen Accord were required to register their emission reduction pledges to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
WRI has analyzed the Annex I pledges received so far, as well as pledges by countries that have yet to associate themselves with the Accord. This analysis provides a preliminary picture of where the… Continue reading
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